Waiting lists set to flatline this year, says IFS

The research body said that meeting the target would need 10.3% annual growth in treatment volumes each year alongside the planned increase in the number of patients treated outside of hospitals. This compared with average annual growth of 2.9% in the five years prior to the pandemic.

‘That would be more than three times the growth rate in the five years prior to Covid, and looks increasingly unreachable,’ said Max Warner (pictured), IFS research economist and author of an IFS report published to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the government’s backlog recovery plan. ‘As a result, it is likely that the waiting list will flatline rather than fall over the coming year.’

The IFS acknowledged there had been ‘meaningful progress’ in reducing the number of patients waiting a very long time for treatment. ‘Waits of two years or more have been more or less eliminated, while eliminating waits of 18 months or more by April ‘remains within reach’. And it applauded the strategy of setting incremental, achievable goals on the way to full recovery.

But it said that there had been less progress in increasing levels of elective activity overall, partly due to ongoing pressures from Covid. Some 5% fewer patients were treated in the 10 months following the publication of the recovery plan than in the same period in 2019. Small improvements in the most recent month of data did not disguise the fact that activity was ‘clearly lagging behind the planned trajectory’, the report said.

The IFS said it expected the waiting list to more or less flatline over 2023 – treatment volumes will increase but by less than planned and waiting lists would only start falling meaningfully from mid-2024.Meaningful reductions in the waiting list this year would require a ‘truly remarkable increase’ in patients treated or the number of new joiners to remain unexpectedly low.

Meanwhile, NHS England marked the recovery plan anniversary by promising ‘hundreds of thousands more patients’ would benefit from treatment next year thanks to dozens of new surgical spaces. It said that an estimated 780,000 additional surgeries and outpatient appointments would be provided at 37 new surgical hubs, 10 expanded existing hubs and 81 new theatres dedicated to elective care.

The targeted investment fund would provide almost 600 new beds for elective care, dozens of elective theatres and nearly 90 more critical care beds across the country.

Health and social care secretary Steve Barclay said ‘great progress’ had been made in the past year in tackling the Covid backlogs, although too many patients were still waiting too long for treatment. ‘These new surgical hubs speed up access to treatment for hundreds of thousands of patients up and down the country – providing 780,000 additional surgery and outpatient appointments,’ he said. ‘Bringing together the skills and expertise of staff under one roof will ensure we keep pace with future demand and rapidly reduce waiting times, getting patients access to vital procedures when and where they need them.’