News / Bleak outlook for NI care

the Northern Irish health and social care system is likely to become unaffordable within five years without service reconfiguration and action to improve productivity and efficiency, according to a report produced for the service by McKinsey.

While recognising the improvements made in quality and efficiency over recent years, the report said it was necessary to change the way health and social care were delivered. Growth in demand and unit costs could increase required funding from £4.3bn in 2010/11 to £5.4bn in 2014/15.

Northern Ireland also spends between 7% and 16% less per head than England once deprivation is taken into account – equivalent to £250m-£600m less per year.

With additional funding unlikely in the current climate, the funding gap could be bridged in a number of ways. These included reducing unit costs through shorter stays in hospital; introducing user co-payments; and controlling pay inflation.

The report is intended as a starting point for negotiations between the health minister and the Department of Finance and Personnel. Health minister Michael McGimpsey said health and social care organisations must continue to improve productivity. He agreed with some of the report’s suggestions, but could not support others, so he would not implement any of the recommendations.

‘Very difficult decisions will have to be made regarding our health and social care service over the next few years. It is simply impossible to continue to deliver services the way we do with the funding available.’

* Scotland’s health boards have been set a target of saving more than £300m (3%) in 2011/12 under the revised NHS efficiency and productivity framework. The framework, for the four years to 2014/15, does not set savings targets beyond 2011/12. Seven cost reduction work streams will identify where further cost savings and quality improvements can be made.